Early Stars Rarely Become Adult Champions, Study Of 34,000 Elite Performers Shows

Monday, December 22, 2025 at 7:02 PM

Research analyzing more than 34,000 top performers reveals that early success doesn't predict greatness. Scientists found 82% of junior international athletes never reach that level as adults, while 72% of adult champions weren't junior champions. The study published in Science shows eventual world-class achievers actually performed worse early on. Nobel laureates had slower early publication impact than nominees who never won. World-class performers typically practiced in multiple disciplines during development, with athletes engaging in approximately two other sports over nine years and Nobel laureates averaging two additional avocations beyond their primary field. Only 13% of junior and senior international athletes overlap, meaning over 70% of adult champions come from those who weren't early stars. (Story URL)


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